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Rome and Egypt, 100–30 BC

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The Chart — 100–30 BC

THE RISE THE CIVIL WAR ALEXANDRIA AND ROME THE TRIUMVIRS 100 BC 75 BC 50 BC 25 BC 12/13 Jul 100 BC — Gaius Julius Caesar born; the day is disputed between the 12th and 13th, and a minority scholarly case argues 102 BC.1 12/13 Jul 100 BC Gaius Julius Caesar born; the day is… c. 85 BC — Caesar’s father dies suddenly, in Caesar’s sixteenth year; Pliny records he died in the morning while dressing.2 c. 85 BC 82 BC — Sulla orders Caesar to divorce Cornelia; Caesar refuses, loses priesthood, dowry and inheritance, and is hunted until pardoned — with Sulla’s recorded warning that in him were many Mariuses.3 82 BC Sulla orders Caesar to divorce… c. 80 BC — Wins the civic crown at the storming of Mytilene, aged about twenty.4 c. 80 BC Wins the civic crown at the storming of… c. 75 BC — Captured by pirates off Pharmacussa; ransomed at fifty talents at his own insistence, then captured and crucified by him under no public office.5 c. 75 BC Captured by pirates off… 69 BC — Quaestor in Further Spain; at his aunt Julia’s funeral he claims descent from kings and gods in the one surviving fragment of his oratory.6 69 BC Quaestor in… 65 BC — Aedile: games with 320 pairs of gladiators on borrowed money; Marius’s trophies restored to the Capitol overnight.8 65 BC Aedile: games with 320 pairs of… 63 BC — Elected pontifex maximus against two senior ex-consuls, on decisive spending.9 63 BC Elected pontifex maximus… 59 BC — Consul with Pompey and Crassus behind him; the lex Vatinia grants Gaul and legions for five years; his daughter Julia marries Pompey.10 59 BC Consul with Pompey and… 58 BC — The Gallic war opens: the Helvetii and Ariovistus defeated. Nine campaign seasons follow.11 58 BC The Gallic war opens: the Helvetii… 54 BC — Julia, Caesar’s daughter and Pompey’s wife, dies in childbirth; the child dies with her.12 54 BC Julia, Caesar’s… 52 BC — Alesia: the double siege lines; Vercingetorix surrenders.13 52 BC Alesia: the double… 11 Jan 49 BC — Caesar crosses the Rubicon with one legion; Suetonius gives the words in Latin, Plutarch in Greek from Menander.15 11 Jan 49 BC 9 Aug 48 BC — Pharsalus: Pompey’s larger army broken; Brutus and Cassius among the pardoned.16 9 Aug 48 BC 46 BC — Cleopatra and Caesarion arrive in Rome; housed in Caesar’s villa across the Tiber until Apr 44.22 46 BC Cleopatra… 46 BC — Caesar places a gilded statue of Cleopatra beside the goddess in the Temple of Venus Genetrix — the temple of the Julian ancestress.23 46 BC Caesar places a… 13 Sep 45 BC — Caesar makes his will at Lavicum; deposits it with the chief Vestal. Octavius heir to three-quarters; guardians named for a son “should one be born to him.”24 13 Sep 45 BC Feb 44 BC — Caesar named dictator perpetuo — dictator without term.25 15 Feb 44 BC — Lupercalia: the consul Antony twice offers Caesar a diadem before the crowd; Caesar refuses twice and sends it to the Capitol. Antony has the offer entered in the official calendar.26 early Mar 44 BC — Report spreads that the Sibylline books say Parthia can only be conquered by a king, and that the title will be moved in the Senate. Dio flags the report “whether true or false”; Cicero later called the prophecy fabricated. Its circulation, not its truth, is the event.27 Mar 44 BC — The tribune Helvius Cinna holds a drafted bill — on Caesar’s order, to be proposed in Caesar’s absence — making it lawful for him to marry what wives he wished, “for the begetting of children.”28 15 Mar 44 BC — Caesar assassinated at the Senate sitting in Pompey’s curia — the last sitting before his eastern departure. About sixty conspirators; 23 wounds.29 18 Mar 44 BC — The day set for departure to the Parthian war. Instead, Caesar’s will is unsealed and read at Antony’s house.30 20 Mar 44 BC — Caesar’s funeral. The crowd, hunting the conspirators’ sympathiser Cornelius Cinna, kills the tribune Helvius Cinna by mistake of name. The drafted marriage bill is never heard of again.31 Nov 43 BC — Second Triumvirate formed: Antony, Octavian, Lepidus. Proscriptions follow; Cicero killed 7 Dec 43.34 Nov 43 BC Second Triumvirate formed: Antony,… 42 BC — The Roman state formally deifies Caesar as Divus Julius. In Egyptian doctrine a dead deified king is Osiris; Rome supplies the term itself, and the Osirian pattern of Isis and Horus is thereby complete without anyone in Egypt arranging it.35 42 BC The Roman state formally deifies Caesar… Oct 42 BC — Philippi: Brutus and Cassius defeated and dead. Antony, the senior victor, takes the East.36 Oct 42 BC Philippi: Brutus and Cassius defeated… 36 BC — Antony’s invasion of Parthia fails with heavy losses. Two years later he will confer the Parthian kings’ own title, King of Kings, on Caesarion, and grant Parthia itself to Alexander Helios.38 36 BC Antony’s… 32 BC — Rome declares war on Cleopatra. The formal charges against Antony include his acknowledgement of Caesarion as Caesar’s legitimate son, named as a degradation of his office and a menace to Octavian. One third of the Senate and both consuls go over to Antony.41 32 BC Rome declares war on Cleopatra 2 Sep 31 BC — Actium: Octavian’s fleet under Agrippa defeats Antony and Cleopatra.42 2 Sep 31 BC Actium: Octavian’s fleet under… c. 69 BC — Cleopatra born; the year is reckoned from her recorded age at death.7 c. 69 BC Cleopatra born; the year is reckoned… 51 BC — Ptolemy XII dies; Cleopatra takes the throne of Egypt with her brother Ptolemy XIII under their father’s will.14 51 BC Ptolemy… Oct 48 BC — Caesar arrives in Alexandria in pursuit of Pompey; the Alexandrian War begins.17 Oct 48 BC Caesar arrives… Jan–Mar 47 BC — The war ends; Cleopatra is restored to the throne, co-ruling with her brother Ptolemy XIV.18 Jan–Mar 47 BC Apr–May 47 BC — Caesar departs Egypt for the Pontic campaign. Month approximate.19 Apr–May 47 BC Caesar departs Egypt for the Pontic… 23 Jun 47 BC — Caesarion (Ptolemy Caesar) born in Alexandria. The precise date rests on the reading of one contemporary stele.20 46–44 BC — Cleopatra in Rome with the child, lodged in Caesar’s own gardens across the Tiber. Caesar places a gilded statue of her in the temple of Venus Genetrix beside the goddess.21 mid-Apr 44 BC — Cleopatra and Caesarion leave Rome for Egypt.32 mid-Apr 44 BC 2 Sep 44 BC — Caesarion crowned co-ruler of Egypt as Ptolemy XV, aged three — within six months of his father’s death.33 2 Sep 44 BC Caesarion crowned co-ruler of Egypt as… 41 BC — Antony summons Cleopatra to Tarsus; the alliance begins.37 41 BC Antony summons Cleopatra to… 37–36 BC — At Antioch, Antony makes major territorial grants to Cleopatra and her children — the first donation event, administrative rather than theatrical.39 37–36 BC At Antioch, Antony makes major… autumn 34 BC — Donations of Alexandria: on golden thrones in the gymnasium, Cleopatra is proclaimed Queen of Kings and Caesarion King of Kings — and declared the true son of the deified Caesar. The Senate refuses ratification.40 autumn 34 BC Donations… summer 30 BC — With the war lost, Caesarion is enrolled among the ephebi and Antyllus given the toga virilis, with feasting in Alexandria for days. He is seventeen; the usual age is fourteen. The ceremony makes him an adult king — and removes the only ground on which Rome might have spared him.43 summer 30 BC With the war lost, Caesarion is… 1 Aug 30 BC — Alexandria falls to Octavian; Antony dies by his own hand.44 1 Aug 30 BC Alexandria falls to Octavian; Antony… 10 or 12 Aug 30 BC — Cleopatra dies in Alexandria. The date is disputed between the 10th and 12th; the manner (the asp) rests on tradition Plutarch already reports as uncertain.45 10 or 12 Aug 30 BC Cleopatra dies in Alexandria late Aug 30 BC — Caesarion, 17, lured back from flight toward the Red Sea and executed on Octavian’s order. The recorded advice: “too many Caesars is not good.” The Ptolemaic line of pharaohs ends. With him the attested male blood of the Julii ends — fourteen years after the line ended in law.46
Rome Egypt
Rome Egypt Death Date approximate or disputed Caesarion — birth and death

Each numbered marker links to its row in the event register below. Positions are placed to the month at 14 pixels per year, and closely spaced events are fanned rightward for readability; exact dates, sources and certainty are carried by the register, which is the single source of truth for this chart.

The Register

How the grading reads. one amber dot: a single channel carries it, with no external corroboration. two green: two independent sources cross. three green: a contemporary inscription, coin or other object. Counted by distinct register entries, not by citations — two passages of one author are one source. Twenty-five of the forty-six entries have two independent sources crossing, which is the best-attested register on this site. Two carry contemporary material evidence — the coinage and the Egyptian stone record.

№DateLaneEventRefs
112/13 Jul 100 BCROME Gaius Julius Caesar born; the day is disputed between the 12th and 13th, and a minority scholarly case argues 102 BC. 8.1 11.1 M1 §3
2c. 85 BCROME Caesar’s father dies suddenly, in Caesar’s sixteenth year; Pliny records he died in the morning while dressing. 9.1.1 24.1 M1 §3
382 BCROME Sulla orders Caesar to divorce Cornelia; Caesar refuses, loses priesthood, dowry and inheritance, and is hunted until pardoned — with Sulla’s recorded warning that in him were many Mariuses. 9.1.1 8.1.1 M1 §4
4c. 80 BCROME Wins the civic crown at the storming of Mytilene, aged about twenty. 9.1.2 M1 §5
5c. 75 BCROME Captured by pirates off Pharmacussa; ransomed at fifty talents at his own insistence, then captured and crucified by him under no public office. 8.1.1 9.1.4 M1 §5
669 BCROME Quaestor in Further Spain; at his aunt Julia’s funeral he claims descent from kings and gods in the one surviving fragment of his oratory. 9.1.6 M1 §6 M2 §6
7c. 69 BCEGYPT Cleopatra born; the year is reckoned from her recorded age at death. 8.2.86
865 BCROME Aedile: games with 320 pairs of gladiators on borrowed money; Marius’s trophies restored to the Capitol overnight. 9.1.10 8.1.5 M1 §6
963 BCROME Elected pontifex maximus against two senior ex-consuls, on decisive spending. 9.1.13 8.1.7 M1 §6
1059 BCROME Consul with Pompey and Crassus behind him; the lex Vatinia grants Gaul and legions for five years; his daughter Julia marries Pompey. 9.1.19 8.1.14 M1 §8
1158 BCROME The Gallic war opens: the Helvetii and Ariovistus defeated. Nine campaign seasons follow. 1.1 M1 §9
1254 BCROME Julia, Caesar’s daughter and Pompey’s wife, dies in childbirth; the child dies with her. 9.1.26 8.1.23 M1 §7
1352 BCROME Alesia: the double siege lines; Vercingetorix surrenders. 1.1.7 M1 §9
1451 BCEGYPT Ptolemy XII dies; Cleopatra takes the throne of Egypt with her brother Ptolemy XIII under their father’s will. 1.1.3
1511 Jan 49 BCROME Caesar crosses the Rubicon with one legion; Suetonius gives the words in Latin, Plutarch in Greek from Menander. 9.1.32 8.1.32 M1 §10
169 Aug 48 BCROME Pharsalus: Pompey’s larger army broken; Brutus and Cassius among the pardoned. 8.1.42 1.1.3 M1 §10
17Oct 48 BCEGYPT Caesar arrives in Alexandria in pursuit of Pompey; the Alexandrian War begins. 1.1.3 1.2 M1 §10
18Jan–Mar 47 BCEGYPT The war ends; Cleopatra is restored to the throne, co-ruling with her brother Ptolemy XIV. 1.2 11.1.42
19Apr–May 47 BCEGYPT Caesar departs Egypt for the Pontic campaign. Month approximate. 1.2 M1 §10
2023 Jun 47 BCEGYPT Caesarion (Ptolemy Caesar) born in Alexandria. The precise date rests on the reading of one contemporary stele. 4.1 M1 §11 M2 §9
2146–44 BCEGYPT Cleopatra in Rome with the child, lodged in Caesar’s own gardens across the Tiber. Caesar places a gilded statue of her in the temple of Venus Genetrix beside the goddess. 11.1.51.22
2246 BCROME Cleopatra and Caesarion arrive in Rome; housed in Caesar’s villa across the Tiber until Apr 44. 9.1.52 2.1.15.15 M1 §11
2346 BCROME Caesar places a gilded statue of Cleopatra beside the goddess in the Temple of Venus Genetrix — the temple of the Julian ancestress. 10.1.2.102 11.1.51.22 M1 §11
2413 Sep 45 BCROME Caesar makes his will at Lavicum; deposits it with the chief Vestal. Octavius heir to three-quarters; guardians named for a son “should one be born to him.” 9.1.83 M1 §12
25Feb 44 BCROME Caesar named dictator perpetuo — dictator without term. 2.2.2 11.1.44 M1 §13
2615 Feb 44 BCROME Lupercalia: the consul Antony twice offers Caesar a diadem before the crowd; Caesar refuses twice and sends it to the Capitol. Antony has the offer entered in the official calendar. 2.2.2.84 8.1.61 M1 §13
27early Mar 44 BCROME Report spreads that the Sibylline books say Parthia can only be conquered by a king, and that the title will be moved in the Senate. Dio flags the report “whether true or false”; Cicero later called the prophecy fabricated. Its circulation, not its truth, is the event. 11.1.44.15 9.1.79 2.3.2 M1 §13
28Mar 44 BCROME The tribune Helvius Cinna holds a drafted bill — on Caesar’s order, to be proposed in Caesar’s absence — making it lawful for him to marry what wives he wished, “for the begetting of children.” 9.1.52.3 M1 §12
2915 Mar 44 BCROME Caesar assassinated at the Senate sitting in Pompey’s curia — the last sitting before his eastern departure. About sixty conspirators; 23 wounds. 5.1 9.1.82 8.1.66 M1 §15 M2 §9
3018 Mar 44 BCROME The day set for departure to the Parthian war. Instead, Caesar’s will is unsealed and read at Antony’s house. 9.1.83 M1 §16 M2 §9
3120 Mar 44 BCROME Caesar’s funeral. The crowd, hunting the conspirators’ sympathiser Cornelius Cinna, kills the tribune Helvius Cinna by mistake of name. The drafted marriage bill is never heard of again. 9.1.85 8.1.68 10.1.2.147 M1 §16
32mid-Apr 44 BCEGYPT Cleopatra and Caesarion leave Rome for Egypt. 2.1.14.8 M1 §16
332 Sep 44 BCEGYPT Caesarion crowned co-ruler of Egypt as Ptolemy XV, aged three — within six months of his father’s death. 4.5 M1 §16
34Nov 43 BCROME Second Triumvirate formed: Antony, Octavian, Lepidus. Proscriptions follow; Cicero killed 7 Dec 43. 10.1.4 11.1.46
3542 BCROME The Roman state formally deifies Caesar as Divus Julius. In Egyptian doctrine a dead deified king is Osiris; Rome supplies the term itself, and the Osirian pattern of Isis and Horus is thereby complete without anyone in Egypt arranging it. 11.1.47.18
36Oct 42 BCROME Philippi: Brutus and Cassius defeated and dead. Antony, the senior victor, takes the East. 10.1.4 8.3 11.1.47
3741 BCEGYPT Antony summons Cleopatra to Tarsus; the alliance begins. 8.2.25 10.1.5
3836 BCROME Antony’s invasion of Parthia fails with heavy losses. Two years later he will confer the Parthian kings’ own title, King of Kings, on Caesarion, and grant Parthia itself to Alexander Helios. 8.2.37
3937–36 BCEGYPT At Antioch, Antony makes major territorial grants to Cleopatra and her children — the first donation event, administrative rather than theatrical. 8.2.36 11.1.49.32
40autumn 34 BCEGYPT Donations of Alexandria: on golden thrones in the gymnasium, Cleopatra is proclaimed Queen of Kings and Caesarion King of Kings — and declared the true son of the deified Caesar. The Senate refuses ratification. 8.2.54 11.1.49.41
4132 BCROME Rome declares war on Cleopatra. The formal charges against Antony include his acknowledgement of Caesarion as Caesar’s legitimate son, named as a degradation of his office and a menace to Octavian. One third of the Senate and both consuls go over to Antony. 11.1.50.4
422 Sep 31 BCROME Actium: Octavian’s fleet under Agrippa defeats Antony and Cleopatra. 8.2.65 11.1.50 6.1.25
43summer 30 BCEGYPT With the war lost, Caesarion is enrolled among the ephebi and Antyllus given the toga virilis, with feasting in Alexandria for days. He is seventeen; the usual age is fourteen. The ceremony makes him an adult king — and removes the only ground on which Rome might have spared him. 8.2.71
441 Aug 30 BCEGYPT Alexandria falls to Octavian; Antony dies by his own hand. 8.2.76 11.1.51.10
4510 or 12 Aug 30 BCEGYPT Cleopatra dies in Alexandria. The date is disputed between the 10th and 12th; the manner (the asp) rests on tradition Plutarch already reports as uncertain. 8.2.85 11.1.51.14
46late Aug 30 BCEGYPT Caesarion, 17, lured back from flight toward the Red Sea and executed on Octavian’s order. The recorded advice: “too many Caesars is not good.” The Ptolemaic line of pharaohs ends. With him the attested male blood of the Julii ends — fourteen years after the line ended in law. 8.2.81 11.1.51.15 M2 §9

Reference codes read source . work . passage — so 9.1.83 is source 9 (Suetonius), work 1 (Divus Julius), chapter 83. Every code links to its entry in the source register below, and every register entry carries its number. The register cites the earliest attestation, not the most familiar one. Green M1 chips link to the section of Caesar, to the Ides covering the event. Dashed chart markers carry an approximate or disputed date; where the window is wide enough to draw at this scale, an error bar shows it. Narrower windows live in the data layer.

The Source Register

Every surviving source for the period, ordered by when it was written — then the sources that are missing, listed with the same seriousness. Numbers are master register numbers — permanent across the whole timelines project; the full register lives at the master source register. The pattern the ordering shows: contemporary material is either by participants on the Roman side, or in Egyptian stone; the earliest surviving connected narrative was written by a client of the victor; the fullest narratives are 150 to 270 years after the events.

Surviving sources

  1. 1 · Julius Caesar and his officers — written 48–45 BC, contemporary, participants. Survives complete; ends before the events of 44.1.1 Civil War · 1.2 Alexandrian War (continuation by his officers) — no stable public edition to link
  2. 2 · Cicero — 46–43 BC, contemporary, senior participant. Cleopatra in Rome (“reginam odi,” 2.1.15.15), her departure (2.1.14.8), the Lupercalia (2.2.2.84–87), the charge that Antony forged entries in Caesar’s acta (2.2.1). Never mentions the Cinna bill — the silence is noted and weighed in Memo 1.2.1 Letters to Atticus · 2.2 Philippics · 2.3 De Divinatione
  3. 3 · Cleopatra VII — 33 BC, contemporary, the queen’s own chancery. One Greek word, ginesthō (“let it be so”), subscribed on a royal ordinance papyrus — the entire surviving output of her side in anything possibly her own hand.3.1 Papyrus subscription, 33 BC — no stable public edition to link
  4. 4 · The Egyptian stone record — contemporary and official, the only substantial body of evidence for Caesarion outside the reach of the Roman victor’s editing.4.1 Serapeum birth stele, Memphis · 4.2 Armant mammisi cartouches (recorded by Napoleon’s savants and later travellers; demolished 1861–62) · 4.3 Dendera reliefs (standing) · 4.4 Bronze coinage with the infant · 4.5 Egyptian regnal dating — stone, coin and dating record; no single edition to link
  5. 5 · Nicolaus of Damascus — ~20s BC, tutor to Cleopatra’s children, afterwards client of Herod and of Augustus. The earliest surviving connected account of the assassination; survives in fragments; written inside the victor’s patronage network by a man who had served the other side.5.1 Life of Augustus (fragments)
  6. 6 · Augustus — completed AD 14, the victor’s own official account, inscribed across the empire. Actium and the taking of Egypt are claimed (6.1.25–27); Antony and Cleopatra are never once named.6.1 Res Gestae Divi Augusti
  7. 7 · Velleius Paterculus — ~AD 30, army officer under Tiberius. Brief loyalist compendium.7.1 Roman History
  8. 8 · Plutarch — ~AD 100–120, some 150 years after. Greek biographer using earlier sources now lost, including Asinius Pollio and, for Cleopatra’s death, her physician Olympos. The Lupercalia scene, the Donations, “too many Caesars.”8.1 Caesar · 8.2 Antony · 8.3 Brutus
  9. 9 · Suetonius — ~AD 121, imperial secretary to Hadrian with access to the archives. The will (9.1.83), the Cinna bill (9.1.52.3), the Oppius pamphlet (9.1.52.2), the funeral and Cinna’s death (9.1.85).9.1 Divus Julius · 9.2 Divus Augustus
  10. 10 · Appian — ~AD 150s, Alexandrian Greek in Roman service, drawing on Pollio. The statue in Venus Genetrix (10.1.2.102), the funeral, the triumviral wars.10.1 Civil Wars
  11. 11 · Cassius Dio — ~AD 200–230, some 250 years after, Roman senator writing in Greek. The fullest connected narrative; the Sibylline report “whether true or false” (11.1.44.15); the fate of the statue (11.1.51.22); the end in Alexandria (11.1.51.10–15).11.1 Roman History

Missing sources

Nothing in this list links out: these works are lost — their absence is the entry.

  1. 12 · Caesar’s private papers and the acta — secured by Antony from Calpurnia on the evening of 15 March 44; contested at the time (Cicero’s forgery charge, 2.2.1). Not one document survives.
  2. 13 · The drafted Cinna bill — attested only at 9.1.52.3; its carrier was killed on 20 March 44 and the text is never heard of again.
  3. 14 · Cleopatra’s archive — the entire chancery, correspondence and any memoirs of a reigning literate monarch of twenty-one years: nothing survives beyond 3.1. The largest single silence in the record.
  4. 15 · Gaius Oppius, the paternity pamphlet — the book denying Caesar’s paternity of Caesarion, commissioned into the record (attested 9.1.52.2), then itself lost; known only from its citation.
  5. 16 · Asinius Pollio, Histories — written by a commander who fought these wars, the acknowledged backbone of Plutarch and Appian. Lost entirely.
  6. 17 · Livy, books 109–133 — the Augustan-era narrative of 49–30 BC. Lost; survives only as one-line summaries (Periochae).
  7. 18 · Augustus, De vita sua — his memoirs in thirteen books. Lost; its account shaped the surviving tradition before disappearing.

Memos for This Period

Held as references, per the stream rule — the arguments live in the memos; the timeline states only what is attested and by whom.

Rome · History · People

Caesar, to the Ides

Part 1 of the Caesar–Cleopatra period: the life to 15 March 44 BC, from the record — the Julii, the Subura, Sulla defied, the pirates, the kings-and-gods eulogy, the lawful ladder to an army, Gaul, the civil war, Cleopatra in Rome, the will and the drafted marriage bill, the Ides, and the documents that are missing. Linked event-by-event to the period timeline.

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Rome · History

The Julii

The family history of the gens Julia: the Troy chain and who recorded it, the surviving stone at Bovillae, Alba destroyed and the family transplanted to Rome, the Republic’s consuls, the lex Julia — and the adoption break: Augustus was a Julian through two women only, grafted by will onto a claim that runs father to son. With its own family timeline, Troy to the Ides.

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A Note on the Method

Eighteen years, two thrones, one bloodline. This page maps the period from Caesar’s arrival in Alexandria to the execution of his son — every event on the chart is a row in the register below it, every row names the ancient source that attests it, and every source carries the date it was written. This page is a map, not a story. The method is the point — when the record for a period was shaped by its winner, the first task is to lay out what is actually attested, by whom, at what distance, and what is missing.

Format — TIMELINE-FORMAT-SPEC v1.0

This page follows the period-page format: a master chart rendered from an event register, and a source register — a subset of the project’s master register, keeping master numbers — that lists what is missing with the same seriousness as what survives.

House rules: every event carries numbered references in source . work . passage form, linked both ways · the register states no interpretation as an event · disputed dates are flagged, not resolved · the earliest attestation is cited, not the most familiar one.

Certainty grading is not displayed: it is reserved as a computed back-end layer (the “how certain” formula), carried per event in the page’s data attributes.